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Swing (politics)
An electoral swing analysis (or swing) shows the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage. A multi-party swing is an indicator of a change in the electorate's preference between candidates or parties (e.g. Conservative to Social Democrat). A swing can be calculated for the electorate as a whole, for a given electoral district or for a particular demographic.
A swing is particularly useful for analysing change in voter support over time, or as a tool for predicting the outcome of elections in constituency-based systems. Swing is also usefully deployed when analysing the shift in voter intentions revealed by (political) opinion polls or to compare polls concisely which may rely on differing samples and on markedly different swings and therefore predict extraneous results.〔(''Electoral Calculus'' 2010 Election: UK Polls Comparison )〕
==Calculation==
A swing is calculated by comparing the percentage of the vote in a particular election to the percentage of the vote belonging to the same party or candidate at the previous election.
One Party Swing = Percentage of vote (current election) − percentage of vote (previous election).
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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